The Attribution Paradox: When Good Data Leads to Uncomfortable Questions 

It's that familiar scene in the regular performance review. The paid search numbers look strong. The MMM model shows positive ROAS. The affiliate program is delivering against targets. Yet somehow, total business growth isn't matching the sum of your channels' reported success. 

You're looking at the data, and a quiet voice in your head asks: "Are we measuring what matters?" 

We can tell you this - you not alone! 

  

When Numbers Tell Competing Stories 

Recently, one of our clients faced this exact situation. The channel-by-channel metrics painted a picture of success, but something wasn't adding up. They had the courage to ask uncomfortable questions: 

  • If our paid search is performing so well, why isn't total revenue growing proportionally? 

  • Are we really acquiring new customers, or just attributing existing demand to paid channels? 

  • What would happen if we fundamentally challenged our measurement approach? 

The answers were surprising (well not to us, because our MTA platform had forecast similar outcomes to support the hypothesis and subsequent experiments).  

Paid media campaigns (with the brief of maintaining low CPA) was cannibalising organic traffic; however, 40% of those PPC-initiated journeys were from existing customers.  

The affiliate channel was massively undervalued by their MMM model, performing 233% better than predicted when tested. (This was a nice surprise – we forecast a lower success rate!) 

The experiment saved the brand over £1.1M in paid search and additional new customer revenue. 

  

The Real Challenge Isn't Technical - It's Human 

Let's be honest: the hardest part of marketing attribution isn't the data science. It's the human element. 

Every leader we speak to knows this truth: challenging established measurement frameworks means navigating complex organisational dynamics. It means asking teams to question approaches they've invested in. It means having difficult conversations about resource allocation and channel effectiveness. 

  

Finding a Better Way Forward 

 We've learned from working with brands brave enough to challenge the status quo - success lies in evolutionary progress, not revolutionary change: 

  • Start with curiosity, not criticism 

  • Build consensus through controlled tests 

  • Let data tell the story 

  • Celebrate insights, not just outcomes 

 Our client's approach was all about baby steps. Instead of wholesale changes, they began with hypothesis testing. Using controlled experiments that allowed teams to learn together. When the data revealed unexpected insights, it wasn't about pointing fingers - it was about discovering opportunities. 

The other side of the coin 

Another of our global clients last year spent sizeable amounts of budget on an MTA POC. The insights discovered were valuable. Had they been executed on. The proof-of-concept ground to a soggy anti-climax, because support hadn’t been given to the territory leads in making the relevant changes. We must wear that – it's not just that we lose a client, the client's budget is rendered as wasted. Pretty disappointing for everyone. A lot has been learned – and has provided us with an opportunity to ensuring this never happens again to us, or any client. So, we continue to learn and evolve and do better for our clients. 

The Questions Worth Asking 

 We're reaching out to marketing leaders who've navigated or are navigating these waters. We want to understand: 

  • How do you create safe spaces for teams to question established metrics? 

  • What approaches have worked in building consensus for measurement evolution? 

  • How do you balance the need for change with team dynamics? 

  • What insights have surprised you in your attribution journey? 

  

Your Experience Matters 

Whether you're: 

  • Currently questioning your attribution approach 

  • Successfully navigated measurement change 

  • In the middle of transformation 

  • Just beginning to explore these questions 

Your insights could help others find their path forward. 

  

Moving the Industry Forward 

This isn't about finding fault with current approaches. It's about acknowledging that marketing has become so complex, measurement must evolve & be fit for purpose. It's about finding ways to: 

  • Enhance existing frameworks with new insights 

  • Empower teams with better data 

  • Drive genuine business growth 

  • Strengthen cross-channel understanding 

 

This is a call to arms, a plea for effectiveness heroes to get involved and share their stories. 

We want to continue to learn from leaders who are brave enough share their experiences - named or anonymous. We're exploring how different organisations are tackling these challenges. 

If you've: 

  • Found innovative ways to evolve measurement approaches 

  • Successfully navigated team dynamics during change 

  • Uncovered surprising insights about channel effectiveness 

  • Developed strategies for building consensus 

We want to hear your story. The industry needs to collaborate to learn together.  

How would you like to contribute? 

  • Share your story in a one-to-one conversation with me tap me up on LinkedIn, I would love to chat. 

Together, we can help marketing teams navigate the future of measurement while building stronger, more effective organisations.